What to Expect Tonight Against Costa Rica. CONCACAF Dance of Death

Tonight. We dance the CONCACAF Dance of Death. A game at home against Costa Rica (7 PM ET, ESPN 2). A game with no margin for error after that bewildering, self-inflicted wound of a loss in Panama. Despite the dreams we harbored before a ball had been kicked, the United States Men (2-1-2) are what we are. A team who have scored zero goals in the first half of their last 8 games. Who have struggled to define an idea of football by which they intend to play, only unfurling two dominant halves through their first 5 qualifying games. Led by a young manager hailed as a data-savvy tactician, who has been buffeted along the turbulent journey, and exposed at times, in a way that no swaggy behind-the-back pass can save him from.

The good news for Gregg. If his US are some kind of Freaky Friday CONCACAF Manchester United – a team with vaunted talent who lack a coherent vision and win games by creating fleeting moments of good football – Ole Gunnar Solskjaer dropped this quote after Mark Noble missed a last second penalty to give United an undeserved win against West Ham: “It is always the outcome that determines the narrative… That is just football.” Three points tonight and the United States will benefit from that footballing truth. Reminder: We go Live At the Final Whistle. COME AND JOIN US on Spotify GreenRoom for a Live Pod at 9 pm EST reflecting on the day's match, the week's news, upcoming Premier League fixtures, and whatever else is on your mind. More details across our Social

What should we expect tonight?

1. “Change. Change. Change”

Brace yourself for the starting line-up. I expect wholesale changes tonight that will shock, excite, thrill. The teamsheet should be an utter seachange from Panama’s Starting Eleven. Pending the fitness of Weston McKennie and Antonee Robinson, we will see Extreme Rotation throughout the side. This is of course an enormous gamble. A win will paper over the cracks. Any other result will create the perception of a coach who is a Tinkerman undermining his own team.

2. The Bad News: The Reality is not going to change whatever the Result

The US team is loaded with potential. Make no mistake. Yet it is what it is: A young team, with no veteran leadership, and a young coach learning as he goes along. That is a tough combination, shorn of experience in any facet, which leaves you with kids leading kids, and a coach who is leaning into data, and recovery science as a crutch for not having chartered these waters before. A win tonight, especially if it is propelled by a Pepi goal that can play on SportsCenter in heavy rotation, will merely mask that reality. It will still be there, and the challenging truth is – this is hard to change mid-course. You cannot weld on experienced players you have essentially iced out of the past 2 years of play without damaging the chemistry.

3. What can be done in the Medium Term?

Very little to be honest. We have set sail on this voyage. There is no turning back. Retrospectively, this young set-up could have done with an approach that Iceland utilized to propel themselves from the periphery to tournament Cinderella: Co-coach. The Icelanders welded on the experience of been-there-done-that Lars Lagerback to the rawer people skills of Heimir Hallgrimsson to great effect. Who could have been US Soccer’s Lars Lagerback? Well, this guy is out of contract…

Let me know what you think.

4. The Good news: Costa Rica ageing and understrength

Make no mistake: this is no vintage cycle of Costa Rican talent. They may have grown into the Octo having struggled at the outset, but the news going into this one is that their forward line will be weakened by the absence of Joel Campbell, out with a sprained ankle, and José Guillermo Ortiz, who has had a positive COVID test. They will be replaced by the creaking legs of Christian Bolaños, a 37-year-old winger, and Álvaro Saborío, the 39-year-old legend. As Paul Tenorio noted, Saborío made his international debut on October 16, 2002. Almost three months later, US forward Ricardo Pepi was born on January 9, 2003. Costa Rica, in Columbus, should be easily beatable. But not so fast. Remember: THIS IS CONCACAF!!! The US may on paper be getting better, but so are the chasing pack. (And let’s not forget, they beat us 2-0 at Red Bull Arena in the last cycle.)

5. Why a Win is Even More Vital: The schedule is about to become CONCACAFFY

4 of our next 6 games are at home, with the two away games as effortless as they could be from a travel perspective, at Jamaica and Canada. However, our back leg of this journey is brutal from a footballing perspective. Not only that Canada away game, but Mexico both home and on the road, and back in Costa Rica. Two of the games in the final round are away at Mexico and Costa Rica. Gotta Rack up those points while we can.

6. Good Reads

Good profile of Pepi’s development as a kid who scores goals with every part of his body, his sense of space, mental strength and huge engine by Charles Boehm.

Lovely piece on Columbus, which remains, even with its new stadium, the most storied city in American Men’s Soccer folklore.

Canada are better than ever and may make their first World Cup since 1986. A deep dive into John Herdman’s squad and the different journeys they have taken to make their dreams come true.

Frightening explainer: Why Hungary’s football fanbase, who fought English police last night, is infected with right-wing Ultras.

That is it for now. I would love to hear your thoughts, dreams and fears. I will be honest. I had a dream last night in which I ran into Jozy Altidore. We were both coming out of a club ahead of kick off. (Remember, this was a dream!) Jozy was getting into a black Cadillac Eldorado – one of those classic cars with fins - and was speeding home to watch the US. I asked him what he thought, and he just rolled his eyes and shook his head and cruised off to catch the game. Don’t know what it means, other than the fact that stress levels are so, so much higher than they should be.

Big Love

Go, Go, USA